The United States is on track to more than double liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 2031, according to a recent report by S&P Global Energy, a data and insights company.
The study, Price and Economic Impacts of an Accelerating Export Industry, examines the potential impact of expanded pipeline capacity in the U.S. Northeast, where winter heating and growing winter power loads have led to highly seasonal demand and extreme price volatility. It updates December 2024 findings to account for a surge in LNG investment.
The report projects that U.S. feedgas demand for LNG exports will double to 36 billion cubic feet per day in the next five years under current conditions. This is 25 percent higher than previous base case projections.
New capacity additions could reduce peak winter month gas prices by more than 20 percent in key New England and New York markets during the 2028-2031 period.
The United States is the world’s leading supplier of LNG and is expected to surpass a one-third share of the global market, with the LNG supply chain expected to exceed $1 trillion through 2040. The industry will support 550,000 jobs annually with 42 percent of jobs and 33 percent of gross domestic product contributions occurring in non-gas-producing areas.
“The United States is in the enviable position where supply and demand are not a major issue,” Eric Eyberg, S&P Global Energy vice president of gas and LNG, said. “Since 2010, domestic gas production has been able to grow three times the amount of U.S. LNG exports. Infrastructure constraints and imbalances are what drive higher regional prices and volatility. The ability to build pipelines is the main challenge.”
Future LNG export activity is forecasted to generate more than $2.9 trillion in total revenues for American businesses, $206 billion in federal and state tax revenues, and nearly $630 billion in labor income.
Other key findings include:
The study projects the average increase in end user gas costs from 2026 to 2031 will be 1.6 percent per household.
In 2025, there was $44 billion in LNG exports. This figure is more than 80 percent of the total value of U.S. passenger cars exports, 70 percent the value of U.S. semiconductor exports, nearly triple the exports value of U.S. movie and TV related revenues, 2.8 times the value of U.S. soybean exports and 2.3 times the value of U.S. corn exports.
LNG is projected to be the second largest U.S. net export industry by 2031.