The rate of payment errors under Pennsylvania’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have been falling, but without further improvement, the state is at risk for hundreds of millions in new costs.
Pennsylvania’s error rate for 2025 was 9.2%, down from 16.6% in 2023. But if the rate remains above 6% for 2026 the state will pay a significant price.
If the error rate falls between 6% and 8%, Pennsylvania will incur about $190 million in benefit costs. And if it’s between 8% and 10% the cost will be $380 million with most of the impact hitting in the 2027-28 fiscal year.
According to Pennsylvania’s Independent Fiscal Office (IFO), about 87% of the error rate was in overpayments.
The additional costs are the result of 2025 federal legislation referred to as President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill. The law increased states’ share of administrative expenses from 50% to 75% and required states to potentially fund SNAP benefit costs depending on their error rates.
“While it’s encouraging to see the state’s error rate decline, Pennsylvania’s welfare programs are still rife with waste,” said Elizabeth Stelle, vice president of policy for the Commonwealth Foundation, a non-profit interest group that advocates for free-market principles.
“To avoid hundreds of millions in new costs, Pennsylvania should focus on robust eligibility processes and frequent eligibility checks to ensure resources set aside for vulnerable Pennsylvanians are protected,” Stelle added.
The IFO report said that because of new and expanded work requirements, which were effective last year, the number of SNAP recipients has reverted to pre-Covid levels.
For June 2026, 13.4% of state residents received SNAP benefits – 1.7 million people – the same share as in June of 2019. Compared to peak enrollment in June 2024 of 2 million people, the number of recipients declined by 14%, or 282,000.
“SNAP work requirements are proving highly successful, with tens of thousands of Pennsylvanians moving off welfare programs and into the workforce,” Stelle said.
“Pennsylvania’s high welfare fraud caseload and history of eligibility errors require systematic reform,” Stelle added. “Unfortunately, Gov. Josh Shapiro has spent more time suing the federal government over attempts to collect more detailed SNAP data than addressing necessary reforms to improve the state’s welfare programs.”
For Shapiro’s part, on Aug. 14, the Office of State Inspector General, which falls under the governor, announced the arrests of 60 people in a major Harrisburg SNAP fraud investigation. The announcement touted the administration’s enforcement efforts.
“Under Governor Josh Shapiro’s leadership, the Administration has prevented over $206 million worth of public benefits from being distributed to those not entitled to assistance and filed charges against 1,751 defendants for total theft of $11.4 million in SNAP program funds,” the statement said.
The payment error data is embodied in a July report by the IFO, a non-partisan agency that provides revenue estimates, economic forecasts and budgetary analyses for the General Assembly and the people of Pennsylvania.