The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index dropped 0.6 points in October while the Uncertainty Index declined 12 points from September to 88. The Optimism Index is still above the 52-year average of 98, and the Uncertainty Index reached its lowest reading of 2025.
The largest component contributing to the decline in the Optimism Index is the frequency of reports of positive profit trends, declining nine points from September to a net negative 25 percent.
“A deterioration in earnings trends contributed the most to the Small Business Optimism Index declining in October,” Greg Moreland, NFIB Pennsylvania state director, said. “Pennsylvania small business owners continue to report hiring challenges and rank labor quality as their top business problem.”
The NFIB Research Center collects data from quarterly surveys randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. State-specific data was not included.
Other findings include:
When compared to September, the net percent of business owners expecting better business conditions dropped 3 points to a net 20 percent. This is above the historical average of net 4 percent, but the lowest level since April.
In the past three months, 13 percent of owners reported higher nominal sales, a six point drop from September.