Norristown, Pa.-based PJM Interconnection LLC, a regional transmission organization (RTO), released its winter outlook on Monday warning that while adequate resources exist to serve the forecasted demand for electricity this winter under normal conditions, decreasing reserve margins pose risks to the system.
“The PJM system is reliable today, but we are keenly aware of the challenges we face as system reserves continue to erode,” said PJM President and CEO Manu Asthana. “The trends we are seeing raise system risk under the kind of extreme weather we have seen over the past few years.”
As the grid operator for 13 states and the District of Columbia, PJM said Monday it expects to have roughly 179,800 megawatts (MW) of resources to meet the forecasted peak demand of about 141,200 MW, as well as the forecasted average of 5,500 MW of electricity exports to neighboring systems.
The system is also expected to remain reliable under several more extreme and less likely scenarios involving lower levels of gas and/or renewable generation, and higher electricity demand or increased exports, but extreme weather scenarios may require the use of emergency procedures, said PJM.
Increasing demand, ongoing generator retirements, and the slow pace of new projects coming online are tightening reserves and creating concerns for the RTO.
Since Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022, forecasted winter peak demand has risen by over 4,000 MW, while the number of thermal generation resources have decreased, said PJM, noting that these combined factors add risk that generator failures on the level of Elliott could leave the system vulnerable to power outages.
During the past two years, Michael Bryson, PJM’s senior vice president of operations, said PJM and its stakeholders have focused on sharpening situational awareness for PJM operators, as well as generator preparation, communication, and scheduling.
“We are not that far away from Winter Storm Elliott, so the possibility of that scenario remains very real,” Bryson said. “We saw how the work we have done with stakeholders since then has helped generator performance while improving our awareness of the system’s true capability at any given time.”
In developing its forecast for winter operations, PJM analyzes the expected demand for electricity, weather predictions, and other factors.
Each year, PJM performs winter readiness assessments in advance of the cold weather months, collecting data on fuel inventory, supply and delivery characteristics, emissions limitations, and minimum operating temperatures.
PJM also meets with federal and state regulators and neighboring systems to review winter preparations, and conducts weekly operational review meetings with major natural gas pipeline operators serving generators in the PJM footprint to coordinate operations with the pipelines that supply a large portion of the gas generation fleet.
PJM and its members also conduct a cold weather operations drill ahead of each winter, and will schedule site visits to generation resources with other regional organizations.